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    Summary report on price and socio-economic situation in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the whole year 2020 of the Construction – Mining – Transport

    On the afternoon of December 27, 2020, the General Statistics Office held a press conference to announce the socio-economic statistics of the fourth quarter and the year 2020. Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, General Director chaired the press conference. At the press conference, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong announced the basics of the socio-economic situation of Vietnam in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 2020. Accordingly, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the fourth quarter / 2020 is estimated to increase by 4.48% over the same period last year, the lowest increase of the fourth quarter of years in the period 2011-2020. Generally, in 2020, GDP will increase by 2.91% (it will increase by 3.68% in the first quarter; 0.39% in the second quarter; 2.69% in the third quarter; the fourth quarter by 4.48%). most of the years in the 2011-2020 period, but in the context of complicated developments in the Covid-19 epidemic, negatively affecting all socio-economic fields, this is a great success of Vietnam. Vietnam’s growth rate in 2020 is among the highest in the world. This shows the correctness in the direction and administration of economic recovery, disease prevention, and the determination and consensus of the entire political system, the Government, the Prime Minister,and the business community to effectively realize the goal of “both preventing epidemics and developing socio-economic”.

    1. December consumer price movements of some major commodity groups

    Housing and construction materials (-0.03%)

    Housing and construction materials decreased by 0.03% compared to the previous month, mainly in prices of electricity and domestic water. Cold weather in the Northern provinces and cool in the Southern provinces so the demand for electricity and domestic water decreased, causing the electricity price index to decrease by 1.38%, and the water price index by 0.03%.

    In the opposite direction, the housing and construction materials group had the following commodities:

    – Gas prices in December 2020 increased by 1.87% over the previous month. From December 1, 2020, the domestic gas price has been adjusted to increase VND 6,500 / 12 kg cylinder due to the announced average world gas price at USD455/ton, an increase of about USD 20 / ton compared to November 2020;

    – Housing materials and maintenance increased by 0.17% compared to the previous month, increasing mainly in sand prices due to the decrease in supply when exploitation was difficult in the rainy season, while the demand for building and repairing houses high increase at the end of the year;

    – Average oil price increased by 9.45% over the previous month due to the influence of the adjustment on November 26, 2020, December 11, 2020, and December 26, 2020.

    Transportation (+2,45%)

    Traffic price index increased by 2.45% compared to the previous month, mainly in the following items:

    Gasoline prices increased on November 26, 2020, December 11, 2020, and December 26, 2020. , of which: E5 gasoline price increased 1,630 VND / liter, A95 gasoline price increased 1,770 VND / liter, diesel oil price increased 1,540 VND / liter over the previous month. A

    accordingly, the gasoline price index increased by 6.52% compared to the previous month, making the overall CPI increase by 0.23%, motorcycle price by 0.18%, spare part price by 0.03%, and maintenance service price. means of transport increased by 0.3% due to increasing demand for shopping and repair at the end of the year.

    2. Market overview and prices for the fourth quarter of 2020

    CPI in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 0.22% over the previous quarter and by 1.38% over the same period last year. Compared to the same quarter last year, among 11 main groups of consumer goods and services, 8 commodity groups increased by 0.51%, of which housing and construction materials rose 0.51%. There are 3 groups of discounts including Traffic with 12.82% discount.

    Some reasons for the decrease in CPI in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period last year:

    (1) In the fourth quarter of 2020, the domestic petrol and oil price will be adjusted for 8 different increases/decreases between types of gasoline and diesel oil. On average, in the fourth quarter of 2020, gasoline prices decreased by 25.70% compared to the same period last year.
    (2) Vietnam Railways Corporation reduced train fares, accordingly, train fares for the fourth quarter of 2020 decreased by 3,76% over the same period last year. Due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, the decrease in travel demand made airfares in the fourth quarter of 2020 decreased by 37.67% compared to the same period last year.
    (3) The Covid-19 translation had a strong impact. to the tourism industry, the tourism demand of the people decreased over the same period. The package tour service price index in the fourth quarter of 2020 decreased by 4.82% over the same period last year.

    3. MARKET OVERVIEW AND PRICES IN 2020

    Consumer price index in 2020 increases by 3.23% over the same period last year. Thus, the National Assembly’s target of controlling inflation and keeping the average CPI in 2019 below 4% has been achieved in the context of a year with unpredictable fluctuations. The number of reasons for controlling CPI in 2020 is as follows:

    – The sharp drop in domestic gasoline and gas prices according to world prices is the main factor reducing pressure on the price level in the months from February to May 2020. The average domestic petrol and oil price in 2020 will decrease by 23.03% compared to the previous year, affecting the overall CPI down 0.83%; Average gas price in 2020 will decrease by 0.95% over the previous year; The average oil price in 2020 will decrease by 31.21% compared to the previous year;

    – Due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, the travel demand of people will decrease, on average in 2020 compared to the previous year, the price of air tickets will decrease 34.7%; train ticket price decreased by 2.12%;

    – The Government implements packages to support farmers and producers who have had difficulty with the Covid-19 translation. Specifically, the support package of Vietnam Electricity (EVN) will implement electricity price reduction for customers with the period from April to June 2020. Accordingly, electricity prices in May (based on electricity output and revenue for daily life from April 1, 2020, to April 30, 2020) and June 2020 (based on electricity output and revenue from daily life from May 1, 2020, to December 31 5/2020) decreased by 0.28% and 2.72% compared to the previous month; actively implemented many synchronous solutions to prevent epidemics and stabilize the market and ensure people’s lives.

    4. PRODUCTION PRICE INDICATORS, EXPORT AND IMPORT PRICE INDICATORS IN QUARTER IV AND 2020

    Producer price indexes of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products

    PPI of forest products in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 0.11% against the previous quarter and decreased by 0.1% against the same period last year; Average price in 2020 will decrease by 0.19% compared to 2019. The price of exploited wood and collected forest products in the fourth quarter of 2020 will increase by 0.49% respectively; 0.6% over the previous quarter, due to the year-end demand for building and repairing houses, purchasing wooden furniture increased, wood supply decreased; the demand for products collected in the last months of the year increases. Influence of Covid-19, some countries importing wood from Vietnam close their borders, causing the average price of exploited wood in 2020 to decrease by 2.1% compared to 2019.

    The producer price index of industrial products

    PPI of industrial products in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 0.1% over the previous quarter and decreased by 0.78% against the fourth quarter of 2019; Average price in 2020 decreases 0.6% compared to 2019. Specific fluctuations in some commodity groups are as follows:

    PPI of mining products in the fourth quarter of 2020 decreased by 0.33% compared to the previous quarter, decreasing 10.42% over the same period last year; the Average price by 2020 decreases 8.76% compared to 2019. In which: (1) Prices of metal ores and metal ore in the fourth quarter of 2020 increase 2.02% compared to the previous quarter; up 13.31% over the fourth quarter of 2019; On average in 2020 compared to 2019, the price of metal ore and metal ore concentrates will increase by 7.98%, due to the increase in domestic iron ore prices following the world iron ore prices; China’s steel demand increased due to economic recovery after the Covid-19 epidemic. (2) Prices of other mineral products in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 0.12% against the previous quarter; increase 0.71% over the same period last year; On average, by 2020, it will increase 1.48% compared to 2019, due to the year-end, the demand for other mining products increases and the supply decreases; Effects of Covid-19 epidemic difficulties in the exploitation of other mineral products; electricity prices for production are high, labor costs increase.

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    In the opposite direction, the price of crude oil and natural gas exploited in the fourth quarter of 2020 ([6]) decreased by 0.64% against the previous quarter; down 20.96% over the same period last year; The average price of crude oil and natural gas exploited in 2020 will decrease by 18.46% compared to 2019, due to the Covid-19 epidemic, the demand for energy will decrease. processing and manufacturing in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 0.09% against the previous quarter, down by 0.3% against the same period last year;

    By 2020, the average will decrease by 0.23% compared to 2019. Prices of metal products; coke coal and refined petroleum products in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 1.96% respectively; 1.51% QoQ, due to increased construction demand, iron ore prices on the world market, and increased demand for coking coal and refined petroleum products in China after Covid-19. However, on average, in 2020, the price of coke and refined petroleum products will decrease by 29.22% compared to 2019, due to the decrease in input material prices such as gasoline prices decrease, electricity production prices decrease ( [7]) April; 5; 6 years 2020.

    Producers and service price indexes

    Transportation and warehouse service price indexes in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 0.28% over the previous quarter; down 5% over the same period last year; On average, by 2020, it will decrease 5.21% compared to 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic is well controlled, the demand for travel increases, making the price of aviation services increase by 2.88%, the price of transportation Inland waterway load increased by 0.12% q-o-q. However, in 2020, the transport industry is most affected by the Covid-19 epidemic, the decrease in demand for travel, tourism, and freight transportation, and transport companies reduce transport prices. Air transport services in 2020 will decrease by 35.94% compared to 2019 and the largest decrease in the second quarter of 2020, due to the implementation of Directive No. 16/CT-TTg dated March 31, 2020, of the Prime Minister. The price of railway transport services in 2020 will decrease by 4.63% compared to 2019 because the Railway Corporation reduces the fare after the peak season such as the tourist season, holidays … In the opposite direction, service price index warehousing and services related to transport support in 2020 will increase by 1.03% compared to 2019, due to an increase in the cost of loading and unloading labor; Prices of postal and delivery services in 2020 will increase by 0.63% compared to 2019, due to increased freight transportation demand.

    Commodity import and export price indexes

    Merchandise export price indexes in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 0.54% against the previous quarter, down 1.3% against the fourth quarter of 2019;

    On average, in 2020, it will decrease by 1.32% compared to 2019, compared to the previous quarter, among 40 major export commodity groups, there are 27 commodity groups with an increase in price indexes and the most increase is the groups: ore and minerals with an increase of 6, 02%, gasoline and oil of all kinds increased 5.21%, …;

    There are 8 commodity groups with the most decrease and decrease in price indexes, including chemical products, down 2.63%, … mobile device exports in the fourth quarter of 2020 decreased by 1.65% compared to the previous quarter, due to the reduction of prices by major mobile phone companies. Coal export price in the fourth quarter of 2020 decreased by 0.48% compared to the previous quarter, due to the decrease in coal consumption demand of countries.

    On average by 2020, compared with 2019, the price of crude oil and coal for export will decrease by 31.78%; 1.1% due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, the need for fuel, the decrease in income, and the difficulty of exports, the import price index of goods in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 0.38% compared to the quarter. previous, down 0.49% over the same period last year; Average decrease of 0.59% in 2020 compared to 2019.

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    Compared to the previous quarter, among 42 main import commodity groups, there were 23 commodity groups with an increase in the price index and much increase in the following groups: Liquefied gas increased 18.55%; Other common metals increased by 3.47%; Petroleum prices increased by 2.52%, …

    Some reasons for the increase in import price indexes in the fourth quarter and 2020: Liquefied gas prices increased by 18.55% from the previous quarter, due to the influence of the market. In the world, gas market prices increase, in cold weather the demand for gas increases. Gasoline price increased by 2.52% q-o-q, due to the fluctuation of imported petrol and oil prices according to world crude oil prices. Some reasons for the decrease in the import price index in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 2020: flora and fauna in the fourth quarter of 2020 decreased by 1.09% from the previous quarter. The average liquefied gas price in 2020 will decrease by 12.96% compared to 2019, due to the second quarter;

    In March 2020, prices decreased by 28.48% and 18.17% over the same period last year, due to low demand in the market and increased inventory. The average gasoline price in 2020 will decrease by 2.65% compared to 2019, due to a decrease in demand.

    Commodity term of trade

    Commodity term of the trade (TOT) in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 0.15% against the previous quarter, down by 0.81% over the same period last year;

    On average, in 2020, it will decrease by 0.74% compared to 2019. compared with the price of imported goods. Export items with an increase in price indexes in the fourth quarter of 2020, such as rice; pepper; cashew; Petroleum; ores and minerals with an increase of 3.62% to 6.02%, the impact on the overall export price index increased by 0.54%, higher than the 0.38% increase in the import price index. On average, in 2020, total freight TOT will decrease by 0.74% compared to 2019, of which 4 groups of TOT goods will decrease, including gasoline, oil, and oil, down 16.95%; iron and steel down 5.85%; seafood products decreased by 4.3%; fruit and vegetable products decreased by 2.14%. There are 4 groups of TOT goods increased, including Chemicals with 7.4% increase; Wood and wood products rose 1.46%; Computers, electronic products, and components rose 0.44%; rubber increased by 0.22%.

    5. The growth rate of gross domestic product

    Gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is estimated to increase by 4.48% over the same period last year, which is the lowest increase in the fourth quarter of each year in the period 2011-2020 [1]. The Covid-19 epidemic was strictly controlled, the economy gradually returned to new normal conditions, the EU and Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, which took effect from August 1, 2020, created a driving force. for the economy, GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 had a prosperous growth compared to the third quarter of 2020, of which the industry and construction sector increased by 5.60%; GDP in 2020 will increase by 2.91% (in the first quarter by 3.68%; in the second quarter by 0.39%; in the third quarter by 2.69%; in the fourth quarter by 4.48%), although it is the lowest of the years in the period 2011-2020 [2] but in the context of complicated developments in Covid-19, negatively affecting all socio-economic fields, this is a great success of Vietnam with annual growth. 2020 belongs to the highest group in the world.

    This shows the correctness in the direction and administration of economic recovery, disease prevention and the determination and consensus of the entire political system, the Government, the Prime Minister; the efforts and efforts of the people and the business community to effectively implement the goal of “both preventing epidemics and developing socio-economic”. In the general growth of the whole economy, the industry and construction sector increased by 3.98%, contributing 53% to the growth rate of the total added value of the whole economy.

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    In the industry and construction sector, industry in 2020 will increase by 3.36% over the previous year [5], contributing 1.12 percentage points to the growth rate of the total added value of the whole economy. In which, the processing and manufacturing industry plays a key role in driving the growth of the economy with an increase of 5.82% [6], contributing 1.25 percentage points; electricity production and distribution rose 3.92%, contributing 0.19 percentage points; water supply, waste and wastewater management, and treatment increased 5.51%, contributing 0.04 percentage point; mining decreased by 5.62% (due to a decrease of 12.6% in crude oil production and 11.5% decrease in natural gas), a decrease of 0.36 percentage points in the overall growth rate.

    The construction industry increased by 6.76%, higher than the growth rate of 2011, 2012, and 2013 in the period 2011-2020 [7], contributing 0.5 percentage points. 2020, the industry and construction sector accounts for 33.72%; the Corresponding structure for 2019 is 34.49%.

    6. Investment

    Realized social investment capital in 2020 will increase by 5.7% compared to 2019, the lowest level in the period 2011-2020 due to the negative influence of the Covid-19 epidemic on all business and production activities. However, the growth rate of realized capital from the State budget in 2020 reached the highest level in the period 2011-2020, this is the result of accelerating implementation and disbursement of public investment capital to maintain economic growth momentum. in the context of the Covid-19 translation is well controlled in Vietnam.

    Social investment capital at current prices in 2020 reached 2,164.5 trillion VND, increasing by 5.7% compared to the previous year and equaling 34.4% of GDP (in the fourth quarter of 2020, it reached 719.6 trillion VND. 7.5% over the same period last year). In which, the state capital was 729 trillion dong, accounting for 33.7% of the total capital and increasing 14.5% over the previous year; the non-state sector reached 972.2 trillion dong, equaling 44.9% and increasing 3.1%; FDI sector reached 463.3 trillion VND, equaling 21.4% and decreasing 1.3%.

    Dịch chuyển vốn FDI vào Việt Nam

    Total foreign investment capital in Vietnam as of December 20, 2020, including newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital, and value of capital contribution and share purchase of foreign investors reached 28.5 billion USD, down 25% compared to 2019. Including 2,523 newly licensed projects with registered capital of 14.6 billion USD, down 35% in a number of projects and 12.5% ​​in registered capital Compared with the last year; 1,140 times of projects licensed in previous years registered to adjust their investment capital with an additional capital increase of 6.4 billion USD, up 10.6%; 6,141 times of capital contribution and share purchase by foreign investors with a total value of the capital contribution of 7.5 billion USD, down 51.7%. In the total number of capital contribution and share purchase times of foreign investors, there are 1,695 times of capital contribution and share purchase to increase the charter capital of the enterprise with the capital contribution value of 3.2 billion USD and 4,446 times of investors. foreign investors buy back domestic shares without increasing charter capital with a value of 4.3 billion USD. Realized FDI capital in 2020 is estimated at nearly 20 billion USD, down 2% from the previous year.

    In 2020, Vietnam’s investment abroad will have 119 projects granted certificates of new investment registration with a total registered capital of 318 million USD from Vietnam; 33 times of projects adjusted capital with additional capital of 272 million USD. In general, Vietnam’s total investment abroad (newly and additionally licensed capital) reached 590 million USD, up 16.1% compared to 2019.

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